Monday, March 15, 2021 – DIA 330.09 +.54%, QQQ 318.83 +1.07%, SPY 396.41 +.60%
No high-impact data. The S&P 500 (SPY) and Dow Industrials (DIA) continued to hit all-time highs with the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) out-performing on the day, but still lagging the others. Equities appeared less tethered to the 10-year government note, and caught a late-day buy program as the Volatility Index (VIX) dipped below 20. Consumer Discretionary (XLY) 169.01 +1.34% stocks led on the day while Energy (XLE) 52.96% -1.14% was down on the day. In an example of how bailout money ends up in the markets, the NY Times reported the 1.9T relief bill included 86B in funding to bailout 185 public and union pension funds. Airlines fared well on the day with United (UAL) 60.94 +8.26%, and American (AAL) 25.17 +7.7%. Pharmaceutical company Eli Lilly (LLY) 189.16 -9.09% released data on an Alzheimer’s drug Donanemab that was supportive but not meeting the expectations of analysts. Rubius Therapeutics (RUBY) 30.29 +84.36% released positive data on a cancer drug RTX-240 for solid tumors.
Tuesday, March 16, 2021 – DIA 328.86 -.37%, QQQ 320.58 +.55%, SPY 395.91 -.13%
Retail sales disappointed with a decline -3.0% v. -.5% expectation; Ex-Autos -2.7% v. -.1%. The market consolidated previous gains going into the FOMC announcement at 2 pm Wednesday. The communications sector (XLC) 76.01 +1.05% and Technology (XLK) 133.81 +.75% performed best, Energy (XLE) 51.45 -2.85% fared worst. Boeing (BA) 255.21 -3.92% a recent strong performer dragged the DJIA into negative territory on the day. NOV Inc. (NOV) 15.18 -10.34% warned on a revenue miss as the company dealt with a Texas power outage disruption with continued customer order weakness due to COVID-19.
Wednesday, March 17, 2021 – DIA 330.77 +.58%, QQQ, 321.90 +.41%, SPY 397.26 +.34%
Building Permits came in lower than expected 1.682M v. 1.75M, and Housing Starts came in even worse 1.421M v. 1.565M. Markets closed up on the day as we saw a relief rally that permeated and calmed the equity markets upon Chairman Powell’s remarks post FOMC meeting/statement. The 10-year index (TNX) 16.41 +.20 moved higher as Mr. Powell implied that the Fed would continue to favor employment growth over inflation fighting in the fed’s dual mandate. Consumer Discretionary (XLY) 169.61 +1.40% fared best on the day, followed by Industrials (XLI) 97.3 +1.15%, with Utilities (XLU) 62.26 -1.63%. The industrial company, Dow Inc (DOW) 66.01 +4.48% continued to hit new highs. Travel Company Expedia (EXPE) 185.27 +5.04% also continued to hit new highs. Homebuilder Lennar (LEN) 100.95 +13.8% beat earnings estimates on low financing rates. On the downside, independent power producer NRG Energy (NRG) 36.18 -16.71% announced it sees a $750 million loss from the Texas power outage, receiving a downgrade by Wolfe Research.
Thursday, March 18, 2021 – DIA 329.36 -.43%, QQQ 312.04 -3.06%, SPY 391.48 -1.45%
Initial Jobless Claims came in much higher than expected 770K v. 700K. Continuing Claims as well 4.124M v. 4.07M expected. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey came in much better than expected 51.8 (above 50 denotes expansion). The market continued its fixation on the climb in interest rates; the 10-year Index (TNX) 17.30 +.89 climbed. The crude oil market which had been a popular reflation trade came under large selling pressure, as refiners have been slow to increase the supply of finished products. Front-month WTI declined -$5.16 to $59.47. The energy sector (XLE) 49.52 -4.49% was hit in response. Marathon (MRO) 10.68% -8.4% was hit hardest along with Occidental (OXY) 26.62 down -8.33%. On the plus side in the insurance business, The Hartford (HIG) 68.15 +18.71% received an unsolicited offer from Chubb Limited (CB) 168.13 -3.07%.
Friday, March 19, 2021 – DIA 326.01 -.81%, QQQ 313.14 +.35%, SPY 389.48 -.19%
No high-impact data released. Quadruple futures & options expiration day. Equity markets opened under pressure but found a low around 10 am, but the upside was muted, and succumbing to selling pressure by the close. Communications (XLC) 75.41 +.87% and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) 166.45 +.60% were the best sectors on the day. With Real Estate (XLRE) 38.64 -1.33% the laggard. FedEx (FDX) 279.58 +6.10% beat on earnings and revenues. FDX shares rose up and out of a basing pattern. Facebook (FB) 290.11 +4.12% announced an Instagram app for children under 13 & FB shares rose up and out of a basing pattern as well. The day’s moonshot was Clovis Oncology (CLVS) 7.86 +47.74%. The company announced its treatment for ovarian cancer, Rubraca, significantly improved progression-free survival rates.
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